You’ll Never Know Which Candidate Is Electable

In a beige reception hall in a Des Moines suburb, over paper plates piled with the remains of a Monday morning continental breakfast, Sen. Bernie Sanders urged a packed house of Iowans to manifest their dreams. Imagine an America where cancer only kills you, rather than also rifling through your wallet. Visualize a future where no American child has to pay off her grandmother’s student loans. Cynicism is high and more than a quarter of us believe the American Dream is unattainable, but Sanders’s stump speech offered hope. “Everything is impossible until it’s not,” he said. The crowd went wild.

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Here’s How We Know 2019 Was The Second-Hottest Year Ever

This summer, we asked readers to send us their climate change questions. And they did. We received many, many, many climate change questions. So many, in fact, that we’re doing several different projects around them. You’ve seen our columns on Who’s Winning Climate Change? Today, we’re diving into the mailbag for another edition of Climate Question from an Adult – a series that will explore the business, culture and chemistry behind your most pressing questions about global warming. Have a question? Send it to us!

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Argentina slashes benchmark interest rate to 40%; seventh cut since December

The bank said the cut was based on a slowdown in inflation and that the move was aimed at helping revive economic growth, vital as the country looks to avoid defaulting on its debts.

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Election Update: Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday Gamble May Be Paying Off

It’s been a good 24 hours for Michael Bloomberg. Early this morning, on the brink of the deadline to do so, the former New York City mayor qualified for Wednesday’s Democratic presidential debate thanks to a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll that gave him 19 percent of the national primary vote. He’s up to 16.3 percent in our national polling average — essentially tying him with former Vice President Joe Biden for the first time. However, he’s still 9 points behind front-runner Sen. Bernie Sanders, and — by Bloomberg’s own design — it will be a couple weeks before we know how much actual voter support Bloomberg has.

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We Fixed An Issue With How Our Primary Forecast Was Calculating Candidates’ Demographic Strengths

Welp, this is never fun. We discovered an issue with how our primary model was making state-by-state and district-by-district forecasts. Specifically, the model was not properly calculating the demographic regressions that we use as a complement to the polls.

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What is the ‘boogaloo’? How online calls for a violent uprising are hitting the mainstream

The movement says it wants a second Civil War targeting liberal political opponents and law enforcement.

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Will The Nevada Debate Be All About Bloomberg?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

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Amid opaque tariff process, questions arise as to why some companies receive exemptions

“It’s a huge disruption. We’re selling simple consumer products that are of no strategic significance to China or the U.S., and we’re just caught in the middle,” said one CEO.

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